Tuesday, May 24, 2016

When it comes to the effect of AI and robots on the job market, there are two polar opposite narratives that you hear:

The first is, “As robots grow ever more sophisticated, they will eliminate jobs at a frenzied pace. The economic value of workers will dive as humans are unable to compete in the job market with the robots. Massive unemployment and social unrest are our future, while all along the 1% will grow wealthier."

The other one is, “We’ve heard that dystopian refrain for two hundred years. Technology is only disruptive to labor in the very short term. Versatile humans always learn to use the new technology to increase their productivity and value. The history of the US, at least, is one of almost constant near-full employment and rising standard of living.”

Which of these is true? Well, it depends on three different things, each of which is hard to estimate:
1) What is the true number of jobs that robots and AI will be able to do?
2) How quickly will they learn to do those jobs?
3) How many new jobs will be created by the new technologies?

It is true that we did go from an agricultural economy to an industrial one, eliminating the livelihoods of 70% of Americans. And it is true that those farmers went on to become higher-paid factory workers without a hitch. But all that took place over the leisurely course of more than a century. It is unclear how the economy and our society would handle the loss of, say, 15% of the jobs over a decade.

this 'snippet' from "Gigaom"'s invitation to an 'Event' to cuss-discuss these issues. - but it's true, are we going to be more robotized or less and what is the proliferation of Robots going to do to society...